Northwesterly to the Rock — but no headbanger, finally

But don’t be fooled. This race is never easy. Wind or not, the tide off the south coast of England always has a say: dodging foul currents off St Alban’s Head, Start Point, the Lizard, and Land’s End is just as much part of the game as catching a shift. Then there’s the final sting in the tail: the Alderney Race, churning through the finish approach into Cherbourg.

The course remains a game of threading needles — and this year’s TSS dance is as tricky as ever. Exiting the Solent, boats must stay north of the Casquets exclusion zone, though the faster classes like Ultims and IMOCAs often head south. The Land’s End–Scilly gap is always key — shorter but tidal — while others may opt for the longer line if it pays on breeze. Past the Rock, another TSS forces a wide berth before the fleet arcs back south. Add the Scilly and Guernsey options, and there’s no shortage of tactical forks.

At present, high pressure sits out west, dominating the picture. But a low-pressure wrinkle in the Celtic Sea could throw routing into chaos — especially for the big boats.

“It’s messy,” says Leopard 3 navigator Will Best. “Yesterday’s model had us doing 2.5 days with a light windward-leeward. Today it’s shifted to a reach — much faster for a 100-footer like us. There’s a mini-system forming, and it’s changing the whole scenario daily. Normal for now, but it’ll settle closer to the start.”

Leopard 3, with her deep 5.5m keel and towering rig, can’t nip around headlands like smaller boats, but she makes tidal gates early — and if it gets light, that rig will keep her moving. They crushed the Cowes–St Malo race earlier this month in similar conditions.

RORC Rear Commodore Joe Lacey will be doublehanding Midnight Blues, a new Pogo RC 33 — one of a growing breed of lightweight offshore flyers from Nivelt and Manuard. “The high pressure’s stable,” he says. “But its exact position shifts the angles. Along the south coast, it might be a beat or a reach. Across the Irish Sea — same again. Right now, we’re looking at 12–15 knots upwind for the start, easing into a coastal reach. Ideal for us.”

The Pogo is built for reaching and downwind, not upwind slogs — and they’re up against longer boats on similar ratings. “If we’re reaching, we’re in the hunt. If it turns into too much upwind — we’ll have to hang on and fight for every second.”

The Pogo RC fleet is small but growing fast. Five are launched, with Aruba, the works boat, joining the race helmed by Achille Nebout and Tanguy Bouroullec.

In IRC Four, all eyes are on Jetpack, Mark Brown’s JPK 1010, currently leading the RORC season by over 100 points. With navigator Sam Jones onboard, they’re well-drilled and upwind quick.

“We’re probably looking at a classic northwest gradient,” says Jones. “Models are lining up — not a gale, but not dead air either. We’re a late start, so the tide gates will be tricky. Getting through St Alban’s Head could be key. Upwind into Christchurch Bay, maybe a touch of reaching by Weymouth, and then onwards.”

The Jetpack team runs six-up, unlike many doublehanded 1010s — a slight weight penalty in light stuff, but they’ll make it up with sail handling when the breeze builds. “We’re heavier than a Sun Fast 3200, but in 15 knots upwind, we’re solid — like we were beating up to Eddystone in the Myth of Malham.”

The last Fastnet ended early for them — sail damage forced a retirement. This year they’re back, leading the pack, and hungry to prove it.

The centenary race won’t be a bruiser — not yet. But between the tidal gates, tricky angles, and a forecast still shaping itself like a bar of soap, this one’s going to demand precision. The days of straight-line bashing may be behind us — but the Rolex Fastnet still takes no prisoners.